Drew Stubbs plays CF for the Cincinnati Reds and is a young and exciting player at the age of 26. He is also arguably the most underrated player in the major leagues. He has only played about one year and two months in the show but he shows promising talent from all aspects of the game.What can be improved upon: I will start with the negatives about Stubbs. There are a just a few.
What I find that he can improve on is his OBP; a .329 OBP in 2010 was right around the average mark in the majors last year but could be higher in my mind.
I also have a little problem with his doubles numbers: just 19 doubles. If he continues to hit a low number of doubles, then his home run totals will become inconsistent in his career because he would have nothing to "back up his homers" so to speak and will go "barren".
Stubbs also shows capability to strike out a lot. His 32.7% strike out rate is a little absurd. Actually, it's really absurd. The league average in 2010 was 20.7% so obviously he needs to cut down on the punch outs or else he is going to have some tough times later on.
The upside: Stubbs's upside is very good. He shows control in center field and does a lot of things right at the plate.
First of all, Stubbs's plate discipline is very good. He shows that he can control the strike zone. He saw 4.02 P/PA in 2010 and 3.88 in a small sample size in 2009 so he shows that he can really be pesky to pitchers at the plate. His O-Swing% was a mere 25.1% versus a 29.3% league average. According to F-Strike%, which measures the percentage of first pitch seen by a hitter, Stubbs saw 62.1% first pitch strikes compared a league average 58.8%.
Second, this guy is fast. He stole 30 bases last year and will most likely be a steals threat for the majority of his career.
Not only is he fast, he also has power. He smacked 22 long balls last year and his power is expected to grow.
Stubbs has a very nice and extremely simple stance. He is able to turn on pitches to pull them as well as go the other way. His stance is very balanced through his whole swing.
In total, Stubbs is currently a 20-20 guy and maybe even a 20-30 player. There is definitely potential for 30-30 for at least one year. He has an above average ISO of .189 and has a walk rate that is slightly above average at 9.4%. He has a great deal of potential and is still young. He had a 3.4 WAR with a neutral UZR of O (although, he had a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of 8).
Surprised? You should be. That's why he is underrated. Keep an eye on him. He is going to be good.
(Stats in courtesy of: espn.com and fangraphs.com)
I think the main issue with Stubbs is still his K rate. I don't know that you are pronouncing just how poor his pitch selection is. His ISO is great for such an under the radar prospect, and his UZR should improve this year as Dusty Baker bounced him in and out of the lineup, and moved him all around too much. In fact, Baker might be the second worst thing about the kid behind his K rate.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I think that Stubbs is a lot like your last guy you wrote about, Grady Sizemore.
By the way, I have major issues with your prospect list on the sidebar. First, I have a hard time seeing Brown at number 8. I think Martin Perez CANNOT remain that high after such a terrible season in which he lost 5 mph on his fastball. That said, he was extremely young for his level. Casey Kelly probably should be there before Perez, but I think both are over Freddie Freeman. The most egregious is having Trout at 6. Mike Trout is far and away the best prospect in all of baseball, even over Bryce Harper. If you are ranking on overall potential, that's one thing. But Harper is so young and so far away, it's very tough to say he's the best.
My biggest arguement that I have with your list is that, although Kansas City has possibly the greatest farm system ever this year, not one is among your top ten. Wil Myers is very similiar to Montero, said for a bit of power. The Royals can literally have an all lefty rotation. ALL LEFTY! AND ALL ABOVE AVERAGE!!!
I would go as follows:
1. Trout
2. Brown
3. Hellickson
4. Montero
5. Harper
6. Moustakas
7. Jennings
8 a. Chapman (would be higher if he were a starter, but again thanks to Dusty the Great, he's a reliever)
8 b. Matt Moore
9. Mike Montgomery
10. Eric Hosmer
I would then have guys like Banuelous, Jacob Turner, Perez, Teheran and Casey Kelly. They are all SO YOUNG. Do you realize the difficulty of being 20 and pitching in AA? That's insane. But they are also a few years away, and pitchers can get hurt so quick. So although I think you're guys are all talented, I would remove Freeman entirely, and move Perez and Teheran down (although BA LOVES Teheran this year, I just worry when a pitcher won't come up for a couple years. So much can change. See Perez, Martin) a few slots.
Coach J
I think the main issue with Stubbs is still his K rate. I don't know that you are pronouncing just how poor his pitch selection is. His ISO is great for such an under the radar prospect, and his UZR should improve this year as Dusty Baker bounced him in and out of the lineup, and moved him all around too much. In fact, Baker might be the second worst thing about the kid behind his K rate.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I think that Stubbs is a lot like your last guy you wrote about, Grady Sizemore.
By the way, I have some issues with your prospect list on the sidebar. First, I have a hard time seeing Brown at number 8. I think Martin Perez CANNOT remain that high after such a terrible season in which he lost 5 mph on his fastball. That said, he was extremely young for his level. Casey Kelly probably should be there before Perez, but I think both are over Freddie Freeman. The most egregious is having Trout at 6. Mike Trout is far and away the best prospect in all of baseball, even over Bryce Harper. If you are ranking on overall potential, that's one thing. But Harper is so young and so far away, it's very tough to say he's the best.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest argument that I have with your list is that, although Kansas City has possibly the greatest farm system ever this year, not one is among your top ten. Wil Myers is very similar to Montero, said for a bit of power. The Royals can literally have an all lefty rotation. ALL LEFTY! AND ALL ABOVE AVERAGE!!!
I would go as follows:
1. Trout
2. Brown
3. Hellickson
4. Montero
5. Harper
6. Moustakas
7. Jennings
8 a. Chapman (would be higher if he were a starter, but again thanks to Dusty the Great, he's a reliever)
8 b. Matt Moore
9. Mike Montgomery
10. Eric Hosmer
I would then have guys like Banuelous, Jacob Turner, Perez, Teheran and Casey Kelly. They are all SO YOUNG. Do you realize the difficulty of being 20 and pitching in AA? That's insane. But they are also a few years away, and pitchers can get hurt so quick. So although I think you're guys are all talented, I would remove Freeman entirely, and move Perez and Teheran down (although BA LOVES Teheran this year, I just worry when a pitcher won't come up for a couple years. So much can change. See Perez, Martin) a few slots.
Mikey More, did you make that prospect list.
ReplyDeleteIf so, I like the placement of Jennings in the top 5.
Tha Black Panther has dropped in pretty much everyone's rankings but he was playing this year with nagging injuries.
Plus defensive CFer, plus-plus speed, great contact hitter, great plate discipline, respectable pop...
Daddy like.
Hey Thanks Suge Knight and helyeah996 for commenting.
ReplyDeletehelyeah996: Quick note: this is a very preliminary prospect list, I am going to be changing it often but, again, it is a rough draft. Also: I agree with what your saying about the fact that the Royals should have a few players in that list considering the fact that they have an AMAZING farm system and Casey Kelly should be in there as well but basically for the reason for this list is that I just evaluate some players a little more in depth before I can put together final draft for this season. Thanks for reading
Suge, the problem with "The Black Panther" is he has an extensive injury history. In 07, a monster year was cut short due to a knee injury. In 08, he missed 2 months with a back injury, then after 24 games he had a shoulder injury that he needed surgery for. In 09 he was a monster. In 2010 he was banged up to start the year. Also, he showed some regression in 2010. His OPS dropped from .888 to about .750. That's not good.
ReplyDeleteIf healthy, he is a young Crawford. He is on everyone's top tens. I'm just saying that there are concerns to him.
helyeah, I believe even after he returned, he wasn't all that healthy. Take his numbers this year with a massive grain of salt.
ReplyDeleteBrohams, where's tha love for Wil Myers...even if he moves to RF or 3B...dude's a serial rakist and his defense will be just fine.