I promised you 6-10 and here they are. Keep in mind that this is for a Regular League and is hitter only rankings.
My 6-10 draft day fantasy rankings
6. Miguel Cabrera- Unlike Joey Votto, Cabrera has an outstanding track record and might have even had a better year than Votto last year. The only question people had for him last year were if he could get motivated and how good could he be if he actually tried. He responded with his best overall season to date, and it wasn't produced artificially with a high BABIP ( 2010 .336 Career .345). His BB%, FB%, and GB% were all career highs (technically his GB% was a career low but you know what I mean). He was 5th on the ESPN's Player Rater and could even have a better year this season. He would be even higher if not for the depth at his position.
7. Ryan Braun- One of the most hyped players after his insane rookie year in 2007 (34 home-runs, 97 RBIs, a 160 WRC+, and a .324 average in only 113 games). Since that year, he has kept his contact, but lost much of his power. His home-run total went as follows: 34, 37, 32, 25. He has not been injured in any of those years, and has played a full season in every year except 2007 (34 home-runs). Ever since that monster year, his doubles have gone up, perhaps indicating that he is getting unlucky with his home-runs. Braun could be in line for a breakout year in 2011, and I have a feeling that someone will draft him earlier than 7th overall.
8. Troy Tulowitzki- The knock against Tulo is that for the first five months of the 2010 season he was quite ordinary, but then in September, he played like Albert Pujols: shortstop edition. If he didn't play shortstop, he would be more like a top twenty pick. But because he plays shortstop, just like Hanley, he gets in the top ten easily. I could definitely see him surpassing Hanley (personally I think Hanley has reached his peak but that is for another story). Another concern is that may bot be as motivated now that he has a gargantuan contract (seven years $132 million) and he missed 40 games in 2010 and 61 games in 2008, both due to injury. I'm assuming he stays healthy, and takes another leap toward superstardom. Even if he doesn't make that jump, you're still guaranteed to have the 2nd best shortstop in the world.
9. David Wright- I considered putting Ryan Zimmerman here before opting to go with Wright as my #2 third baseman. I'm pretty sure it's the "Wright" call. Excuse my bad pun. While most people have attributed Wright's "decline" to his move to Citi Field, it is his recent jolt in K% that is responsible. From 2004-2008, the highest Wright's K% was 19.7%, which is very good. But in 2009 and 2010, Wright had K% of 26.2% and 27.4%, respectively. My theory is that when Wright first struggled to hit home-runs, he started to swing for the fences ever time, making him strike out more and hurting his home-run total more than helping it. In 2010 he made an adjustment, hitting 29 home-runs, but I still feel he is "swinging for the fences" too much. His FB% improved drastically from '09, but his LD% fell 7% from '09, a dramatic decrease. Until Wright makes the necessary adjustments to improve his hitting, I can't put him in the top five.
10. Adrian Gonzalez- This was really almost a tie between him and the reigning NL MVP, Joey Votto, but in the end I had to give the 10th spot to Gonzalez. His consistent production at one of the worst hitting ballparks in baseball, and some of of the worst lineups ever, made me foam at the mouth thinking about what he can accomplish at Fenway Park, not to mention that he is surrounded by one of the deepest lineups in baseball. Before you start drooling, you need to take into account that he is moving from the NL to the AL, and from the NL West (2nd or 1st worst division) to AL East (best division by far). But even with those negatives, he is the still going to be one of the best players in baseball. All of his peripherals have stayed consistent, so in no way should there be a decline. I also expect him to go much lower than this in many leagues, so keep that in mind. My not unreasonable projection is: .307 average with 43 home-runs and 120 RBIs. Those RBI and home-run totals could get even higher, so I'd try to pounce If I were you.
Notable players missing: I didn't put Joey Votto or Carlos Gonzalez for the same reasons; high BABIP ( .361 for Votto, .384 for Gonzalez) and they do not have a proven track record. This is more specifically for Gonzalez than Votto. Votto has proven that he can sustain a high BABIP (.372 in '09), but I'm worried that it might fall substantially this year, due to the fact that his LD% has fallen every year since his debut. Gonzalez BABIP rose about 50 points, even though in almost every single meaningful peripheral stat, he declined. And, unlike Votto, he has played only one full season in the majors. Votto is pretty much tied with (Adrian) Gonzalez for number ten, while (Carlos) Gonzalez is not even in my top twenty.
In a couple of days I'll have my top ten keeper rankings out. Hope you enjoyed this post!
(Update as of 1/20/11): There has been some controversy over my rankings, so I just wanted everyone to see some other rankings by professional sportswriters. The first one is Eric Karabell's of www.espn.com. His rankings are part of ESPN Insider, which costs money. You can get ESPN Insider if you are a subscriber to ESPN the Magazine. I would suggest getting Insider because they have many helpful tips and hints for avid fantasy players. If you want his rankings click here. The second rankings are from www.razzball.com from a blogger known only as "Grey". Razzball is a great site for all things fantasy baseball, and I use them regularly for advice. If you want to read his rankings click here. Both of these sites will give you greater insight on players and their respective rankings, so I suggest you read them. Enjoy!