I promised you 6-10 and here they are. Keep in mind that this is for a Regular League and is hitter only rankings.
My 6-10 draft day fantasy rankings
6. Miguel Cabrera- Unlike Joey Votto, Cabrera has an outstanding track record and might have even had a better year than Votto last year. The only question people had for him last year were if he could get motivated and how good could he be if he actually tried. He responded with his best overall season to date, and it wasn't produced artificially with a high BABIP ( 2010 .336 Career .345). His BB%, FB%, and GB% were all career highs (technically his GB% was a career low but you know what I mean). He was 5th on the ESPN's Player Rater and could even have a better year this season. He would be even higher if not for the depth at his position.
7. Ryan Braun- One of the most hyped players after his insane rookie year in 2007 (34 home-runs, 97 RBIs, a 160 WRC+, and a .324 average in only 113 games). Since that year, he has kept his contact, but lost much of his power. His home-run total went as follows: 34, 37, 32, 25. He has not been injured in any of those years, and has played a full season in every year except 2007 (34 home-runs). Ever since that monster year, his doubles have gone up, perhaps indicating that he is getting unlucky with his home-runs. Braun could be in line for a breakout year in 2011, and I have a feeling that someone will draft him earlier than 7th overall.
8. Troy Tulowitzki- The knock against Tulo is that for the first five months of the 2010 season he was quite ordinary, but then in September, he played like Albert Pujols: shortstop edition. If he didn't play shortstop, he would be more like a top twenty pick. But because he plays shortstop, just like Hanley, he gets in the top ten easily. I could definitely see him surpassing Hanley (personally I think Hanley has reached his peak but that is for another story). Another concern is that may bot be as motivated now that he has a gargantuan contract (seven years $132 million) and he missed 40 games in 2010 and 61 games in 2008, both due to injury. I'm assuming he stays healthy, and takes another leap toward superstardom. Even if he doesn't make that jump, you're still guaranteed to have the 2nd best shortstop in the world.
9. David Wright- I considered putting Ryan Zimmerman here before opting to go with Wright as my #2 third baseman. I'm pretty sure it's the "Wright" call. Excuse my bad pun. While most people have attributed Wright's "decline" to his move to Citi Field, it is his recent jolt in K% that is responsible. From 2004-2008, the highest Wright's K% was 19.7%, which is very good. But in 2009 and 2010, Wright had K% of 26.2% and 27.4%, respectively. My theory is that when Wright first struggled to hit home-runs, he started to swing for the fences ever time, making him strike out more and hurting his home-run total more than helping it. In 2010 he made an adjustment, hitting 29 home-runs, but I still feel he is "swinging for the fences" too much. His FB% improved drastically from '09, but his LD% fell 7% from '09, a dramatic decrease. Until Wright makes the necessary adjustments to improve his hitting, I can't put him in the top five.
10. Adrian Gonzalez- This was really almost a tie between him and the reigning NL MVP, Joey Votto, but in the end I had to give the 10th spot to Gonzalez. His consistent production at one of the worst hitting ballparks in baseball, and some of of the worst lineups ever, made me foam at the mouth thinking about what he can accomplish at Fenway Park, not to mention that he is surrounded by one of the deepest lineups in baseball. Before you start drooling, you need to take into account that he is moving from the NL to the AL, and from the NL West (2nd or 1st worst division) to AL East (best division by far). But even with those negatives, he is the still going to be one of the best players in baseball. All of his peripherals have stayed consistent, so in no way should there be a decline. I also expect him to go much lower than this in many leagues, so keep that in mind. My not unreasonable projection is: .307 average with 43 home-runs and 120 RBIs. Those RBI and home-run totals could get even higher, so I'd try to pounce If I were you.
Notable players missing: I didn't put Joey Votto or Carlos Gonzalez for the same reasons; high BABIP ( .361 for Votto, .384 for Gonzalez) and they do not have a proven track record. This is more specifically for Gonzalez than Votto. Votto has proven that he can sustain a high BABIP (.372 in '09), but I'm worried that it might fall substantially this year, due to the fact that his LD% has fallen every year since his debut. Gonzalez BABIP rose about 50 points, even though in almost every single meaningful peripheral stat, he declined. And, unlike Votto, he has played only one full season in the majors. Votto is pretty much tied with (Adrian) Gonzalez for number ten, while (Carlos) Gonzalez is not even in my top twenty.
In a couple of days I'll have my top ten keeper rankings out. Hope you enjoyed this post!
(Sources: www.espn.com, www.fangraphs.com)
(Update as of 1/20/11): There has been some controversy over my rankings, so I just wanted everyone to see some other rankings by professional sportswriters. The first one is Eric Karabell's of www.espn.com. His rankings are part of ESPN Insider, which costs money. You can get ESPN Insider if you are a subscriber to ESPN the Magazine. I would suggest getting Insider because they have many helpful tips and hints for avid fantasy players. If you want his rankings click here. The second rankings are from www.razzball.com from a blogger known only as "Grey". Razzball is a great site for all things fantasy baseball, and I use them regularly for advice. If you want to read his rankings click here. Both of these sites will give you greater insight on players and their respective rankings, so I suggest you read them. Enjoy!
i fear your predictions are lacking with the absence of Josh Hamilton. Playing few games last year, he was still very much in the running for MVP and (with the help of Mitch Moreland) led the Rangers' offense into the World Series. With his outstanding capabilities in the outfield and extraordinary swing, Hamilton should be not only in the top 10 but, in this writer's opinion, top 3.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion on Hamilton is that he is a very "iffy" player. His BABIP last year was .390 yet his line drive rate was 22% and his career line drive is 21.7% so this shows that got VERY lucky last year so he is going to regress, I say 27 homers and a .290 average. We have yet to see the "real" Hamilton for a full season as he went on a tear for the first half of 2008, was injured for most of 2009 and got very lucky in 2010 (which is basically another hot streak) so I more than agree with the fact that Hamilton is not in this top 10.
ReplyDeleteGood Thinking
I don't think he is a top ten player, but is probably in my top 12 or 13. He is very injury prone (never played a full season ever) and he did get lucky with that .390 BABIP. I'd expect .320 and 31 home-runs. But thats if he doesn't get injured. And thats a pretty big if.
ReplyDeleteHow does Votto not have a proven track record??? In just his 3rd full year he won MVP. In each of his three seasons he's had an OPS of over .850, and his past two seasons his OPS was at least .950. Not only that, but in his three years he has averaged about 30 homeruns, 90 RBIs, a .960 OPS, and a .314 average, and some of these statistics are actually skewed by his rookie season (which was still extremely above average for a rookie). You must check yourself before you wreck yourself.
ReplyDeleteI like the line at the end (Ice Cube!) but in three years Votto has only been a top 30 fantasy player once, while A-Gon has been a consistent performer for 3 years. Votto's GB% went up last year, and his LD% and FB% went down. His BABIP was .361, abnormally high for someone with those peripheral stats.
ReplyDeleteI am a firm believer that A-Gon will probably be better than Votto in fantasy this year, and I agree with most of your list, but I just wanted to point out that Votto does have a wonderful track record.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your agreement, but while he does have a good track record, it isn't quite as good as the members of the illustrious top ten.
ReplyDeleteWell it can't be as good because all of these guys have played over three years, except Longoria, and Votto has had a better career offensively than Longo.
ReplyDeleteIt's tough though, because after Pujols, everyone else is kind of bunched up in offensive talent (There's not too much of a difference between someone who may be #5 in a list like this or #15).
ReplyDeleteYou're right about everyone being bunched up, but the reason I put Longo over Votto is because first base has sooooo much depth (Kendry Morales anyone?) and third base, after Wright, Longoria, Youk, Zimmermann, and maybe Adrian Beltre or Jose Bautista (not entirely proven) there aren't too many impact players. Votto and Kendry Morales (looking at his 2009 stats) are very similar, and you could get Kendry in a much later round. Also, Longo's peripheral stats have been getting better ever since his debut, while Votto's peripheral stats have been declining since his debut.
ReplyDeleteThird Base also does have a tremendous amount of depth though... In addition to your list you have Mark Reynolds, Alex Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, and I guess you could even say Michael Young. Also, eventhough the peropheral stats have been going down for Votto, does it really matter if his OBP, SLG%, and Average keep rising?
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to trust Reynolds (under the Mendoza line last year), A-Rod (hasn't had over 600 PAs since '07), Sandoval ("Giant" down year last year) and Michael Young (getting older and may lose third base eligibility due to the Adrian Beltre signing). And while I admit he power is rising, his AVG is only increasing due to an inflated BABIP.
ReplyDeleteCar-go should without question be in the top 10...he came in 3rd for the NL MVP last year and even if his number have a significant dropoff then that still puts him near the top 10..and just the possibility that those numbers could stay the same or even possibley rise is enough to have him in the top 10 without question
ReplyDeleteAs I said in the blog, Car-Go's peripheral stats declined last year and while his numbers last year were impressive, it is very hard to trust him to draft in the top ten. Having said that, I would put him in the top 15 in regular leagues and the top ten or even top five in keeper leagues.
ReplyDeleteYou use drop-offs in peripheral stats a lot in your projections, but does that really usually call for a big drop-off in offensive production?
ReplyDeleteCould you give some examples?
From past years?
ReplyDeleteDo you mean someone's peripherals going down a little each year and then finally becoming bad? Or someone's peripherals just being bad one year and his stats go down?
ReplyDeleteThis isn't the best example, but since his rookie season, Ryan Braun has not done as well. His GB% and FB% have both gone done, indicating that he may not be the 40 home-run guy we thought he was. Meanwhile, his home-run totals have been going down. He is still a great player and may become a superstar, but his peripherals are showing that he needs to make some adjustments to become one.
ReplyDeleteThat's an alright example, but I'm not sure if peripherals are truly that important... I don't really like them except for walk-strikeout ratio.
ReplyDeleteWell, also, last year Derek Jeter's GB% jumped 10% and that most likely contributed to his massive decline.
ReplyDeleteI actually think his massive decline caused for the groundball rate jump.
ReplyDeleteYou could put it either way, the put is, looking at peripheral stats for hitters is helpful if you want to guess future performance. The same thing goes for pitchers.
ReplyDeleteIt may be helpful for projections, but I'm not sure if those projections are accurate.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to look at peripheral stats and how players perform when they go down, visit www.fangraphs.com
ReplyDeletejack is trying to say that while peripheral stats are important, you are putting 2 much weight on them. I actuall agree with jack to an extent...while GB, LD, and FB percentages are all important compared to a ISO or BAPIP they are not as important
ReplyDeleteThey are not more or less Important than eachother, in my opinion, rather, they are equally important due to the fact that in order to prove if one's BABIP and ISO are "legit", you need LD, GB and FB rates to ensure that the other two are for real and not flukes, e.g. Joey Votto
ReplyDeleteBy peripheral stats I mean LD GB FB, and BABIP. ISO is more of an advanced stat.
ReplyDelete