Alex Gordon was not and is not a bust (especially not this year)

By Mike Moritz

After being drafted second overall in the 2005 draft, Alex Gordon started his first season in pro-ball in AA and in 576 PAs, he hit .325/.427/.588 with a .268 ISO, while also posting a 12.5% walk rate, 29 homers and stealing 22 bases.We should also note, and probably put more consideration into his .452 wOBA and 172 wRC+, both of which were outstanding. It could be deemed that he was just about destined for greatness. The fact that he was able to hit that well in his first year of minor league ball in AA was amazing! Now rewinding a little bit, before the 2006 season started, he was already ranked as the 19th best prospect in baseball as rated by Baseball America, and he hadn't even picked up a bat in pro-ball. Impressive right? And sure enough, after that monster season in AA, he earned the #2 prospect rating by Baseball America, behind only the then highly touted Daiskue Matsuzaka. Not only did Gordon earn a higher ranking as a prospect, he also earned himself a spot on the 25-man roster, skipping AAA entirely.

So here's what happened next: He turned in what seemed to be a disappointing offensive season as he hit .247/.314/.411 with an 88 wRC+, with only 15 homers as his walk rate basically cut in half, down to 6.8%. On the other hand, he had a pretty nice .164 ISO and 36 doubles. But nontheless, it all added up to -8.1 RC. But UZR did like him enough for an 8.7. He turned in 2.1 WAR. His BABIP was .303. His LD/FB/GB slash line was 19.5%/43.6%/36.9%. So he had a little more pure power (FB%) and seemed to be a good pure hitter (LD%). So maybe he got a little unlucky. Let's say his BABIP should have been something like .325ish. So his average should have been around .272, his OBP should have been around .339 and etc. So the fact that he was able to post a 2.1 WAR in his rookie season despite not living up to offensive expectations at all is okay. He just got a little BABIP'd, nothing you can do about it.

Now, the next year, he started to put it together. He hit .260/.351/.432, .172 ISO, 106 wRC+. He hit 16 homers and 35 doubles but this time, his walk rate spiked back up to near his minor league levels: 11.6%. His batted-ball-slash-line was 21%/47.6%/31.4%. So he showed improved pure hitting ability and increased pure power, something that should have led to a break out year the next season.

Instead, Gordon got shot down by injuries in 2009. He missed 79 games, if my sources are correct, to a hip injury which, I believe, required surgery. He ended up only getting 189 PAs, a point in which the vast majority of statistics are not stabilized. So that was sort of a lost season for him.

And then, in 2010, he started the year on the DL. He came back after his rehab assignment and the Royals sent him back down after he was hitting .194 but in only 37 PAs. This is where the Royals started to  mess with Gordon. Fans thought he was a bust. In 321 PAs in AAA, he, predictably, hit the shit off the ball: .315/.442/.577, just to keep it short. He was re-called in July and hit just .215/.315/.355 with a .140 ISO in 281 PAs, which added up to be -.4 WAR. Now, most conventional baseball fans don't know what WAR is, so all the Royals fans were just saying straight up that Gordon was a bust.

But if you know advanced stats well and you were into them since Gordon got called up for the first time back in 2007, then you might have noticed that after his injury plagued 2009 season, his batted rates went back to normal, more specifically his line drive rate. It rose back up from 14.3% in 2009 all the way back to 23.2% in 2010. So he was BABIP'd to death in 2010 in those 281 PAs, so be it. As I said before, you can't do anything about BABIP. It can be a harmful thing, it really can. But people should have also taken note of his growth as a pure hitter. As what happens to most great hitters who have multiple tools (in this case, I'm referring to hitting for average and hitting for power), Gordon started to hit more ground balls and less fly balls  while also keeping his line drive rate up, which shows an improved set of hit-placement-skills, or the ability to place balls in certain spots, whether it be in the air, on the ground and to left or right field, or going back up the middle. Again, the reason that we did not see the results was because of the Holy BABIP.

So sure enough, Gordon has put it together this year at age 27, right at his prime. And yes, he been able to maintain the ability to keep hitting ground balls while also squaring up the ball for a home run now and then. His batted-ball-slash-line this year has been 21.8%/39.9%/38.4%, very good. So his stats for 2011, you ask? Well....305/.378/.505, .383 wOBA, 141 wRC+, .200 ISO, 30.6 RC, 7.9 UZR (keep in mind he made a position change before this year to left field from third base). He also has 41 doubles (which ties him for second in baseball) and 19 homers. He has 6 WAR this year. Sure his walk rate has gone down a bit (9.5%, still above average) and his O-Swing% has jumped, but based on his past performances with base on balls, I think he bring that walk rate back up, hopefully. And sure, his .365 BABIP is pretty high and due to regress, I wouldn't expect to regress all that much based on his batted ball this year and through his career.

Do I think that Gordon will be the 6.5 WAR guy for the rest of his career that he's on pace for now this season? No. But he should be a 3.5-4.5 and maybe 5 WAR through his prime and once his BABIP returns to normal. Gordon has not been a bust, in fact, he's far from it, it's just taken him a while to find his groove/get healthy/the Royals to give another chance/for the BABIP Gods to be kind to him for once. Some players take a few years to live up to the hype, Gordon is one of them. His career path has been a little sketchy but his peripherals tell the truth. Royals fans, Alex Gordon is pretty legit.

(Statistics in courtesy of: fangraphs.com, baseball-reference.com and baseballprospectus.com)

A Derek Jeter Resurgence

By Mike Moritz

Right now, Derek Jeter is hitting .295. Okay, now anyone who thought that Jeter would come within 10 points or less of hitting .300 or better this season by the near-end of August raise your hand. I can see that a lot of you people did not think so, and rightfully so: Jeter hit .270/.340/.370 and a .100 ISO in 2010 en route to his worst offensive season of his career. His line drive rate (16.1%) and fly ball rate (18.2%) were both career lows while his ground ball rate reached 65.7%, which was the highest in baseball. All of this happened at age 36, at which point he is past his prime.

So coming into this year, sure he was expected to get his 3,000th hit but let's be honest, he was deemed just about at the end of his rope. And so, as expected, for the first three months at least, he struggled, as his line drive rates for April, May and June were 9.6%, 14%, and 9.5%, respectively. Jeter had new hitting mechanics that he flirted with for spring training and a few weeks into the season but ditched that plan early on.

July was the start of a resurgence for Jeter, which included his 3,000 hit and home run (which I was unable to watch because I was away; which is why you haven't seen a new post in a while). His line drive rate hit a season high 19.7% without a change in his mechanics. This month has only been better for Jeter; his line drive rate has sky rocketed to a heady 33.8%. Even when Jeter is at-bat, I just have the confidence that he is going to get a hit, hopefully you feel the same way.

The thing is, this resurgence might just only last for this season. Look, he's 37 years old now and has been in decline for a little while now so I find it highly doubtful that he can turn it completely around before he retire. I find it even harder to believe that he can really flip the switch back on because he really just has no power left basically.

I would love it if Jeter could become a .300 hitter again until he retires, but it's just not all that realistic. BUT! We could very well see Jeter finish with a .300+ average, and that would be very nice, even if he finishes with an ISO under .100 and his wOBA is almost 25 points less than his OBP.

A look at Pedro Alverez's -0.4 WAR season

By Mike Moritz

To put it simply, Pedro Alvarez has been really bad this year. Before he hit the DL with a quad injury, the Pirates third basemen was hitting just .208/.283/.304 with a .271 wOBA. And as stated in the title, he has produced -.4 wins above replacement. Alvarez was a top prospect and still has a lot of time to live up to his potential but right now, he's doing just so bad.

This kind of season was sort of expected. He had a .341 BABIP last year, which was essentially the only reason why he hit over .250 (.256, to be exact). Although his BABIP was high, he had a .321 xBABIP, so if he hadn't gotten so lucky, he would have hit somewhere around .236. And with 20 points less on the batting average would theoretically mean 20 points less on his OBP, and so on and so forth. But his .321 xBABIP is definitely something to keep his head up about (if he even knows what BABIP is); that's a good mark. Will he forever become a hitter to sustain high BABIPs? Maybe, but it is highly unlikely, especially considering the kind of player he is. In fact, the .321 xBABIP seems like it could be a little lower than that. His 14.8% line drive rate was very low from the about 18% that is league average. Line Drive rate, aside from representing a good hitter, being the most important aspect of batted balls, it seems hard that Alverez could sustain an average around .260.

On top of that, its not like Alverez has exceptional hit placement skills that he can put up high ground ball averages. He really just isn't the kind of player that can really shoot the ball back up the middle whenever he wants; he's a power hitter and struggles with regard to contact ability.

He had a 28.1% strike out rate in between AAA and his rookie season last year in the Majors. In just the majors, he had a 12.9% SwStr rate, or 4.4% above the league average in 2010. And his ability to actually make contact in general, was exactly 11% below the league average, 69.7%.

Additionally, there are actually times in baseball where it's bad to make contact, as crazy as it sounds, and that comes into play when talking about bad pitches out of the zone. If your watching a player swing at a pitch near the dirt, then you actually should hope that he misses so that he has the chance to make his at bat longer and have another hack instead of hitting weak hits. Now, obviously this would only work when a player does not have two strikes on them, otherwise they would strike out. That being said, Alverez actually does a very good job of keeping his O-Contact% down, or missing bad pitches. So in theory, he should be getting a little bit of praise for not making contact outs with pitches that are in the dirt of above his head, etc.

I'll be frank when I say this, when Alverez comes back from his injury, expect his average to remain around the .208 mark for the rest of the season. That is, unless this recovery from this injury can somehow magically make him hit more line drives, more fly balls and strike out less. Also, assuming he does not get BABIP'd again as he did in 2010. 

Really, Alverez is a one dimensional player: power. He won't give any defensive value at third base (-8.8 career UZR/150) and will probably have to move to first base in a few years. He won't hit for a very high average, mostly due to his strike out problems and also his lack of ability to hit line drives. He doesn't bring much value on the base paths (2.3 Speed score for his career).

All in all, Alverez is in for a rough season and probably will struggle to do anything else but hit homers unless he fixes his two big problems: lack of line drives and strike outs.

Matt Garza's awesome season

By Mike Moritz

Most Saber metric geeks know that Matt Garza is experiencing a great season. And most conventional baseball fans think that Garza is experiencing merely just his normal season. His 3.72 ERA is good but not spectacular and his 2-4 record is much less of an indicator of his greatness. Despite those good-but-not-great "on the surface statistics", we have seen a dramatic improvement in his overall production.

Garza is second in the majors in FIP with a 1.83 mark, behind just some old guy named Roy Halladay, don't know if you guys have ever heard of him. Garza is also second in the majors with a 2.44 xFIP, behind that same Halladay guy.

The thought was that Garza was going to do a lot worse with the move to Wrigley Field over the off season. He had been considered a fly ball pitcher when he was on the Rays (albeit, he was not a huge fly ball pitcher; 43% fly ball rate). He was helped out a decent amount by Tropicana field and consistently produced very low BABIPs, never having a BABIP above .273 with the Rays because of a shut down defense. With the Rays, he never produced an xFIP 4.14, merely just an average mark for the league. He averaged an average 7.1 K/9 and a  3.1 BB/9 in Tampa. He was not an elite pitcher, really, by any means.

But in his first year in Chicago, he has already amassed 2.3 WAR and is on pace to surpass his previous high of 3.2 back in 2009. He has had his dominance mainly because of a change in repertoire and usage of his pitches.

With the Rays, he never used his fastball less than 71.1% in a season and because of that, he rarely used his off speed pitches; the highest percent-usage of any of his other pitches was just 14% (his slider). Hitters were able to hit him more easily because he was throwing the fastball so often, and rightly so. His heater is above average in terms of velocity, running around 92-94 mph.

He is now using his fastball just 54.7% of the time, much less than the 70%ish that he used it in Tampa. He is now using his slider and change up much more often. He has been using his slider 21.9% of the time compared to the and has positive value to it, as he has his whole career: .36 wSL/C this year. He has been using his change up 11.8% of the time, compared to around the 6%ish that he has used it before with the Rays. Although the change has had negative value, it has actually been the best so far this year in extended time in his career with a -0.36 wCH/C, and that number is barely below the zero mark. His best change up was back in 2007, when he was on the Twins but only pitched 83 innings: .08 wSL/C.

By mixing up his pitches, changing speeds and eye levels, Garza is now striking out hitters at a career high and getting ground balls like an ace. And he is demolishing his previous highs in those two categories.

His 10.99 K/9 is first in the majors, in front of another pitcher who is all of the sudden striking out hitters like never before. His newly found strike out ability has been backed up by a SwStr% of 11.1%, shattering his previous high of 8.8%. His opponent O-Contact% has reached a career low, 55.1%, backing up the fact that his off speed pitches are good. His opponent O-Swing% is a career high, 34.2%, again, saying that his off speed pitches are good enough to have hitters swing at nothing. Take a look for your self, and see how Matt Garza's opponent plate discipline stats have changed for the better, click here.

The other aspect that Garza has dramatically improved on is his ability to get ground balls. Coming into 2011, and with the Rays, Garza had a 39% ground ball rate, decent. This year, that number has jumped to 48.3%. That number is not considered one of the best, but it is still sky high.

But that might be where the problem starts. His 3.71 ERA is good, but not nearly as good as his 2.44 xFIP, or perhaps his 1.83 FIP. This huge gap between ERA and FIP/xFIP has been mainly attributed to his terrible luck. His .362 BABIP is the highest mark in baseball and although his 62.2% LOB is not the lowest in baseball, it is still terrible. To say that Garza's on-the-surface-performance should get better is a complete understatement; he is getting so unlucky that it might actually be funny. The Cubs defense is bad, sure, but it is not bad enough that Garza should be having this bad amounts of luck. Then again, the main reason that Garza has not had his ERA blow up is because of some good luck (crazy, I know right?): his 2.4% HR/FB is the third lowest in the bigs and is due to regress upward sometime soon.

The even better thing is that Garza has faced 242 batters which means that strike outs, ground balls rate and line drive rate have long been stabilized (150 batters faced). That also means that fly ball rate is just about stabilized too (200 batters faced). Keep in that a 10.99 K/9 is really hard to sustain, no matter how deep into the season you are, so it might regress back to around 9 K/9, still top notch.

Garza has gotten very unlucky this season but legitimate changes to his pitching approach has led to astonishing results, even if it does not show in 3.71 ERA quite yet. In time though, Matt Garza will be putting some nasty pitching lines that even conventional baseball fans will start to notice. It's just a matter of time until Garza gets the Luck Dragons to returns to his side.

(Stats in courtesy of: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com)

An epic (saber-metric) showdown of backyard baseball, Game 6

By Mike Moritz

After the Game Five win by The Crookers, The Dickle-Doos became the one's with their back's to the wall. It was, in every way, a must win game. Being down 3-2 in the series, The Dickle-Doos needed a stellar pitching performance from Tim Dickincum in Game Six to slow down the Crooker bats that have recently gone bonkers. The Crookers were looking from a good start from Crook Canks. 

Dickincum posted a 8.43 ERA but had a 6.11 FIP, which was by far the best mark in the league. He had a 17.93 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 (best in the league) and a but a bad 41% ground ball rate. He was making just his first start in the series due to a stiff toe...? In 5.2 innings, Dickincum had just 1 punch out while walking 3 and giving up 2 homers and a total of 7 runs. Overall, a solid start but much less than what you would expect from Dickincum. Dickincum's main problem wasn't necessarily his ability-- or lack-there-of -- to get strike outs, but rather his inability to get me to whiff.

In all seriousness though, Simon tends to have the kind of curve ball that works at probably a 20% rate. When his curve ball falls within the confines of the strike zone, I can't hit it (albeit, it rarely is a pitch that is within the confines of the strike zone, he usually misses the back board entirely). But what ever it was, I reduced my (roughly (just guessing)) 8% SwStr% in the first five games to just 4% in Game Six. In other words, I whiffed at just ONE of Simon's pitches all game. I put 19 into play and fouled off 5. But because Simon was unable to get me to whiff at his pitches, it gave me much more lee-way and it forced him to throw more hittable pitches, making him a pitch-to-contact-pitcher.

And I took advantage of that mantra that I forced him to adopt.

• After averaging a 22% line drive rate in the first five games of the series, I bumped that number up to 32% in Game Six. My fly ball rate was once again low, 26% and I had a 42% ground ball rate. I seemed to have gotten pretty lucky with my .632 BABIP, but it actually seems right considering my spike in the line drive department. 
• While I had some rather decent batted ball rates, Simon really struggled to get that "big hit" all game. His 64% ground ball rate was really bad but his 14% fly ball rate was straight up terrible (sorry Simon). Simon got some neutral luck as his BABIP was .393 despite having a mere .167 average on ground balls. I was able to get him to ground into three double plays.
• Me and Simon both had four homers each (even though Simon had 4 fly balls). He drew five walks while I only had three. Although Simon could not get me to whiff, he was still limiting the damage by not walking batters. Had he walked around the 8 or 9 that he usually does, then the game would have been a blow out.
• Simon was able to make the game interesting in the top of the 7th inning. Holding on to an 11-4 lead, Simon quickly draws a HBP and then hits a two run homer. He then proceeded to put on his "wait until he throws a strike" act until the score was finally 11-10. With two outs and a 1-2 count on him, I drop a curve ball and he swings and makes contact, only to hit it into the ground for the game ending ground out. 

Final score: 11-10, Crookers win. We have won the series 4-2 and after what seemed to be a series taken by Simon after Game Three, I came back to win three straight games. 

If Simon was able to at least hit a couple more balls in the air, even if they line drives (which you would want all the time), he could have won considering how close the game was in the top of the 7th. But nonetheless, he didn't and ended up ending the game with a grounder, something that could have described the whole game for him.

That does it with this series. Perhaps Simon and I will start another series soon but now it's time for The Baseball Jungle to return to real baseball writing. I hope you enjoyed this edition of B.Y.B (Back Yard Baseball).

An epic (saber-metric) showdown of backyard baseball, Game 5

By Mike Moritz

Again, if you missed the first post about Simon and I's baseball series click here.


After tying the series up at two games a piece and coming off an offensive slaughter of the Dickle-Doos in Game Four, The Crookers felt comfortable going into Game Five.

I really do not have all that much to say about Game Five. It was your typical Crooker-Dickle-Doo, Back Yard Baseball game.

The Crookers started Crook Lee and he was solid. He went 4.2 innings, 9 ER, and three strike outs and two walks. R.A. Dickle was the starter for The Dickle-Doos. He went 4.2 innings, 11 ER, 6 SO and 2 walks. So although Dickle gave up 7 homers, he had a 3 K/BB ratio.

• Both of us went back-to-back at some point in the season. For me it was in the forth and for Simon in the fifth. 
• I seemed to in a home run frenzy as I did not hit a non-homer hit until the top of the forth. In fact, I only had two non extra base hits the whole game. It helped me and the rest of The Crookers to post a staggering .920 wOBA.
• Simon's 61% ground ball rate was horrible but consider his 4 GIDP and it was just even worse. Nothing more can be said.
• In the top of the fifth, I was losing 8-6. After Simon got the first two outs, I broke the game open with 7 runs and 3 homers to take the 13-8 lead.
• But going back to the first inning, I started the game with a nice seven pitch at-bat, fouling off a few pitches and driving the count to 3-2 but it ended in a strike out. But after making Simon work to start the game, I then swung at the first pitch of the second at-bat and sent the ball into the center field trees for a 1-0 lead.

The game ended with a ground ball to second base and The Crookers won 16-10, taking a 3-2 lead in the series. 

As I mentioned before, I don't really have much to say about this game. It was a solid win for The Crookers. 

Game Six has already been played so look for a post about that game very soon.

An epic (saber-metric) showdown of backyard baseball, Game 4

By Mike Moritz

With my back against the wall, The Crookers and I had some work to do against the Dickle-Doo.

As always, if you missed the first post about these epic backyard baseball games that Simon and I play, click here to read the rules of our league.

Being down 2 games to 1, we, The Crookers, had to now work our way out of a hole that we could not afford to get any deeper.

After a disappointing game 2, in which The Crookers blew a 5 run lead in the bottom of the seventh inning that ended in a walk off walk. In a game where we just could not hit and The Dickle-Doos were having a power surge with 7 homers.

But Game 4 was much different. The Crookers sent Max Crookzur to the mound while The Dickle-Doos had Felix Dickhandez on the bumb.